Climate Change in the case of Azerbaijan

Caspian Sea

It’s possible to assume that with the impact of climate change shallow water area will increase and in the same way water temperature on these areas and on surface water masses of sea will increase. However, as a whole along Caspian water area temperature rise on surface layer is expected within the range 0, 5-2, 5 #186Ñ  less than on land.

Increase of a sea level by 150 centimeters would lead to flooding of 87,7 thousand hectares of Azerbaijan’s areas by 2030-2040. The territories surrounding oil production fields will contaminate by oil products. Of course, it would result in weakening of the gas and heat exchange between atmosphere and sea and reduction of bioresources.

Due to a rise of the Caspian Sea’s level some consequences estimated

a) The quality of coastal waters will get worse, b) The spawning-ground for fishes will reduce, c) The spawning ground at the coastal shallow waters will change d) the serious decease among sturgeons(fish) will occur. Caspian Sea is the world’s single basin, in which the large shoals of sturgeons are accumulated. This is 90% of the world’s total sturgeon reserves.

If the key reason of Sea level rise was sea balance change due to water inflow increase as a consequence of climatic changes, this situation had to lead to decrease of sea water salinity. Connection between sea level and sea water salinity was estimated during the period from 1953 to 1994 in Caspian Sea and it is seen that sea level increase led to water salinity decreases.

Meanwhile, relationship between water salinity and sea level on deep-water areas of Middle and South Caspian is high (0, 6-0, 8). In North Caspian we can see less water salinity as a consequent of Volga waters inflow. We know that water with less salinity can boil more easily than salinity water. Boling water can easily remove oxygen which is an urgent matter for underwater ecosystem. More over, the impact caused by climate change to fish resources is indirect and happens through the changes in water hydrological and hydrochemical characteristics.

Actually, the average water salinity of surface waters in open sea will be within the previous range -12, 7-12, 8 o/oo.  It should be mentioned that if salinity of Caspian water is more than 15 o/oo it becomes hazardous for Caspian fauna. In a fact, climate change is not dangerous for the water salinity. But, who knows, at less climate change will alter balance of water salinity. More over, insignificant changes of saltiness and oxygen regime will positively affect the fish resources. Additionally, temperature of water plays an important role in the process of defining the spawning and reproduction conditions of fishes.

Total water resources of Azerbaijan rivers make up 31.5 km, except Caspian sea. Kura is major transboundary river. Total water resources of the Kura river are 26.6 km and only 25-30% of total water resources of rivers is formed within the Azerbaijan republic

One main point here is that marine plankton plays an essential role in the global carbon cycle. 75% of the preindustrial vertical gradients of the dissolved inorganic carbon in the sea are due to biological processes. Model simulations show that the atmospheric CO2 concentration doubles when the photosynthetic fixation of carbon is shut down. Marine plankton is therefore a key player in the global carbon cycle.

More over, we know that temperature balance depend on circulation between carbon dioxide amounts in atmosphere and carbonate amount in ocean, sea. However, 70% of earth is covering with water. By the way, calcium carbonate resources in marine can indicate oil deposits places. This is one way of digging oil well in ocean.

Gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect includes

Carbon dioxide (CO₂). Carbon dioxide is released through natural processes such as respiration and volcano eruptions and through human activities such as deforestation, land use changes and burning fossil fuels. Humans have increased atmospheric CO₂ concentration by a third since the Industrial Revolution began.

Global carbon budget identified at 14.5 gigatonnes of CO₂ per annum for the remainder of the 21^st Century. Currently, emissions are running at twice. If these situations continue, the carbon budget will occur expiry during the 2030's and it can lead to temperature increases of 5ºC ---roughly similar to temperature changes since the last ice age 10,000 years ago.

Azerbaijan has 0.1% of the world's population and global emissions - an average of 3.8 tonnes of CO₂ per person. If all countries in the world were to emit CO₂ at levels similar to Azerbaijan's, it would exceed carbon budget 71% and this is dangerous for all earth.

With the analyzing of table we can see that for future if the entire world emitted like High-income OECD countries, an average of 13.2 tonnes of CO₂ per person, it would be emitting 6 times carbon budget.

Table 1: Carbon dioxide emissions
	Total emissions (MtCO2)		CO2 emissions annual change (%)	CO2 emissions share of world total (%)		Population share (%)	CO2 emissions per capita (tCO2)
CO2 emitters	1990	2004	1990-2004	1990	2004	2004	1990	2004
United States	4,818.3	6,045.8	1.8	21.2	20.9	4.6	19.3	20.6
China	2,398.9	5,007.1	7.8	10.6	17.3	20.2	2.1	3.8
Russian Federation	1,984.1	1,524.1	-1.9	8.8	5.3	2.2	13.4	10.6
Ukraine	600.0	329.8	-3.8	2.6	1.1	0.7	11.5	7.0
Poland	347.6	307.1	-0.8	1.5	1.1	0.6	9.1	8.0
Kazakhstan	259.2	200.2	-1.9	1.1	0.7	0.2	15.7	13.3
Azerbaijan	49.8	31.3	-3.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	6.9	3.8
Estonia	24.9	18.9	-2.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	16.1	14.0
Tajikistan	20.6	5.0	-6.3	0.1	0.0	0.1	3.7	0.8
Georgia	15.1	3.9	-6.2	0.1	0.0	0.1	2.8	0.8
Global aggregates
High-income OECD	10,055.4	12,137.5	1.5	44.3	41.9	14.3	12.0	13.2
Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS	4,182.0	3,168.0	-2.0	18.4	10.9	6.2	10.3	7.9
Medium human development	5,944.4	10,215.2	5.1	26.2	35.2	65.1	1.8	2.5
World	22,702.5	28,982.7	2.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	4.3	4.5

Analysis demonstrated that 80-90% of CO2 emissions in Azerbaijan derives from the “Energy” category. It is estimated as follows:

• Energy production and fuel refining – 38.4%
• Industry – 18.0%
• Transport – 10.2%
• Commercial and residential sectors – 26.2%

As we know, natural gas and liquid oil products are the main energy types in Azerbaijan. Last few years the structure of fuel expenditure in the energy production sectors of a country has changed. In the beginning of 1990, the shares of consumed fuel oil and gas have made up 33% and later 67%. Now these indices changed and the share of consumed fuel oil became 80%. Therefore it is logical that the CO2 emissions level increased accordingly.

Oil production growth in Azerbaijan is coming primarily from Azeri Chirag, Guneshli field and is increased to almost 1 million barrels per day by 2008.

Analysis of the economic sectors of the Azerbaijan Republic showed many priority sectors need technological modernization. Meanwhile the energy sectors are considered the most important in these terms. Modernization can decrease CO2 emissions. Table is estimated such sectors as follows:

In 1994-1995 with the technical assistance of EU, the Joint Stock Company “Azerenergy” has developed the “Plan of perspective development of electrical energy system of Azerbaijan till 2010”. Main trends are identified by the document as follows:

1. Reconstruction of Thermal Power Plants (TPP) and Hydro-Power Plants (HPP)

2. Improvement of country’s energy system with the increasing of a share of HPP

3. Construction of sub-stations with the voltage of 220-230 kW with the view to reduce the energy losses

4. Creation of equipment for usage of alternative renewable energy sources in the region

It is planned to introduce more economical steam-gas and steam turbine equipment with the specific fuel consumption of 260 kW-hour that is approximately by 30-40% less than currently used technology. For future technologies used on TPP would let us save about 3.5 millions of Conventional Fuel Tons (CFT). It will lead to CO2 emissions by 14 millions of tons per year.

Consequently, one point is evident - technological innovation is the key to prevent the negative impacts of climate change. In future the economic policies of all states – especially those with economies in transition, especially CIS members– must develop upon the technological progress.

Increase of electrical energy production on HPP’s would enable saving of oil fuel and reduction of CO2 emissions.

Metane

Main sources of methane emission in Azerbaijan are power plants and industry, especially oil sector. Industrial emission in Azerbaijan is concentrated in Sumgayit. Actually all methane emissions sources in Azerbaijan have been indicated in 4 main categories: energy, agriculture , waste and maybe one from volcanoes.

Due to anticipated production increase at existing and large scale development of new oil and gas fields methane emissions are forecasted to increase by more than 3 times by 2025.

Currently, our country has experienced a serious lack of statistical data on methane emissions and therefore forecast of these emissions has not been made.

In reality, metan is more dangerous than carbon dioxide. One molecule of metan lives 20 years on atmosphere.

Methane (CH₄) fluctuation to the atmosphere was measured from gas vents and from mud volcanoes in everlasting fire" -in eastern Azerbaijan. Mud volcanoes show different activity of venting craters, gryphons, and bubbling pools, with CH₄ fluxes less than one to hundreds of tons per year. At least 1400 tons of CH₄ per year are released from the investigated areas. It is conservatively estimated that all onshore mud volcanoes of Azerbaijan, during quiescent activity, may still emit 0.3–0.9 x 10⁶ t of CH₄ per year into the atmosphere.

In Azerbaijan has other gases mixture which cause of climate change of earth .let’s analyze it with table

Agriculture

Currently the agricultural sector of Azerbaijan is living through its’ critical period related to radical changes of production processes and increasing degradation of production capacity. As a result of agrarian reforms most of the collective farms and soviet farms were disintegrated and new forms of agricultural holdings were organized. There were created more than 26 thousands of private farms, 5 thousands of collective farms, one thousand of rented farms, 800 smaller enterprises and etc.

Ozon layer

Ozone layer monitoring has been implemented on the station situated nearby the Baku since the year of 1993. General concentration of ozone is being measured by the ozone meter M-124 Atmospheric air quality monitoring is implemented on 27 stations located in eight cities. Such parameters as dust, SO2, NO2, CO, CL and phenol are being measured.

Gabala Station

A team of US military experts have inspected a mammoth Soviet-era radar station in Azerbaijan that Russia is pushing as an alternative to contentious anti-missile defence sites in central Europe. Azerbaijan is located just north of Iran and Russia insists the station, which is 240 kilometres from Baku, would be more practical in thwarting potential Iranian missile attacks than sites in Europe. Gabala station spread radiation.

But despite of Gabala radar Station we can see toxic waste in Baku and Sumgayit

Malariya

Azerbaijan is currently endemic for malaria.The importation of cases into other countries, from both eastern Europe and beyond, has been increasing. Climate change may increase the risk of reintroduction of malaria in eastern Europe unless programmes to control vectors are maintained or increased. In western Europe, climate change increases the risk of airport malaria, which occurs when people are infected by mosquitoes that arrive on aircraft. Six cases of malaria were described in and around the main airport in Paris during the hot summer of 1994.

The way of solution

Actually, The Republic of Azerbaijan signed UN Framework Convention on the Climate Changes (UNFCCC) in 1992 and ratified it in 1995. Later, in 2000, Azerbaijan signed and ratified the Kyoto protocol to the UNFCCC.

According to the Convention, “The first national report on climate change” was implemented in 1998-1999, and subsequently the second stage was implemented in 2000. After first draft, National Adaptation Plan on the Reduction of Possible Negative Impacts of Climate Changes, National Cadastre of the Greenhouse Gases causing Global Warming and National Plan of Action on the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions have been implemented.

At the second stage of the project, the national technology related priorities for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the Republic of Azerbaijan. At present, Azerbaijan together with the Eastern European and former Soviet Union Republics participates at the first stage of the regional project. Project term is June 2002-June 2005. Nowadays project is going on the creation of the database on statistics and concentrators of the gas emissions causing warming effect; providing social-economic development to evaluate dangerous impacts on climate, economy and ecosystems; evaluating the impact of climate change on population health, encouraging the transfer environmentally technologies to Azerbaijan for utilization of alternative sources of energy such as sun, wind and biogases and completing obviation of the use of ozone layer depleting substances.

Usage of renewable energy sources

Geographical position and climatic conditions in Azerbaijan is promising country renewable energy sources. For this category include the solar, wind, geothermal and biomass energy.

Solar energy

Actually, usage of solar energy is considered logical in the regions with entering solar radiation of over 120 kw-hour/m per year. In many regions of Azerbaijan the volume of entering solar radiation makes up 1600-1800 kW-hour/m3 while average annual duration of solar radiance is 2200 to 2600 hours there with the radiation level of 3-6 kW/m3. These figures show that the practical use of solar energy is economically justified for Azerbaijan republic. That is because location of solar stations conforms to the principle saying that “the closer the energy source is, the more efficient and economic.

Implementation of a project providing for practicing the usage of solar energy would allow saving of 0.13 millions of CFT of fuel and reduction of CO2 emissions by 232.000 tons after ten years

Wind energy

In Azerbaijan there are quite favorable climatic conditions for development of wind energy production. Perspective in terms of wind energy production are the Apsheron peninsula, coastal area nearby the “Nizovaya Pristan” meteorological station, Sumgait zone, Jiloy Island, Oil Rocks, Puta, Svinoy and Sara islands. Attractiveness of these areas is predetermined by the average annual strength of winds, which is 5.5-8.0 m/sec. there. Moreover the fact that the winds are blowing 250 days a year in Azerbaijan makes it unreasonable to ignore the wind energy production opportunities. Joint Stock Company “Azerenergy” together with Japan Company “Tomen” is working over the project providing for construction of wind energy station with capacity of 30 MW.

Taking into account the energy development baseline, the introduction of wind energy would lead to reduction of CO2 emissions by 4.4 millions of tons after 20 years.

 

Bioenergy

Biomass is a sustainable renewable energy source, which could be used for production of electricity and other energy resources.

Azerbaijan is a region with poor forestry. An average share of wooded areas makes up about 11% here that are by 2.5 to 3 times lower than the internationally accepted norm. Calorific value of forests’ wood is 6 to 12 TJ/thds.m3. Average calorific value of the solid biomass makes up 18.4 TJ/thds. of tons. There are two projects on usage of biomass and they will be described in the “Housing sector” and “Agriculture” sections

Other Initiatives

Youth in Azerbaijan are more sensitive. They try to use bicycle or general transport for everyone. Nowadays, in Baku especially Youth try to not use of old techniques which can increase carbon dioxide emission, such as old automobile or techniques remains from Soviet period. Moreover, youth try to plant more green trees around city. They have just one slogan “Clean motherland, Green Motherland”. We know that growing trees absorb carbon dioxide and produce oxygen. An average a typical tree absorb, through photosynthesis, the equivavelent of 1 tonne of carbon dioxide for every cubic metre’s growth, while producing the equivalent of 0,7 t of oxygen. Azeri youth especially try to plant green tress in all seasons, such as Kuknar, Sham. They stay always green and it is proven that these trees absorbs hazardous automobile gases and is participated special place in ozone creation. In medicine even, suggested to walk under these tresses.

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